The pace of upward revisions to consensus US 2024 GDP forecasts has slowed markedly in recent months.
Markets increasingly confident it’s ’job done’ on inflation but services could still be too sticky for the Fed.
Growth has continued to outperform Value. Small cap has marginally outperformed large cap over three months but saw negative returns in January.
Growth sees a 5yr annualized return of 17.9% vs 10.7% for value.
Markets pricing in higher tempo of rate cuts but US monetary policy facing a series of important milestones including Powell’s guidance at August’s Jackson Hole Symposium, September’s FOMC meeting and the US presidential election.
At 21.5 the US market 12m forward PE has risen its highest level since January 2022.
US market concentration drives divergence between US market aggregate and US ex ‘Mag 7’ 12m forward PEs.
Technology sectors expected to contribute around two-thirds (8%) of the 12.1% forecast growth rate.
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