Market Navigation Reports

Monthly multi-asset Market Navigation research reports to help investment
decision formulation covering global markets performance and market drivers and trends.

Global Markets Performance - Q3 2023

-3.3%

RETURN of the FT Wilshire 5000 in SEPTEMBER

+12.5%

Appreciation of the FT Wilshire 5000 YTD

+25.6%

Outperformance of Growth Style vs Value YTD

+40.7%

PERFORMANCE OF THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR YTD
US Market Performance
Data as of :
January 31, 2024

FT Wilshire 5000 loses momentum as Fed dampens optimism over rate cut in March

More
US Sector Performance
Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Technology and digital info sectors remain the main drivers of returns, Real estate and transportation reverse course in January

More
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

FT Wilshire 5000 loses momentum as Fed dampens optimism over rate cut in March

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Having hit new all-time on the 29th January the FT Wilshire 5000 lost momentum month-end as the Fed cools optimism over a March rate cut.

Technology and digital information sectors continue to drive FT Wilshire 5000 returns.

Wide dispersion of returns within US technology sector as semiconductors spike higher.

FT Wilshire US Large Cap vs Small Cap since December 31, 2022
Following a 26.1% return (22.1% real) in 2023 the FT Wilshire 5000, posted a modest 1.1% return in January. The index has seen annualized returns of 13.8% and 12.2% over 5 and 10 years, respectively. Despite the strong return in 2023 the index has only seen a 0.1% real annualized return over 2 years.
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

Technology and digital info sectors remain the main drivers of returns, Real estate and transportation reverse course in January

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Technology and digital information posted positive returns in January and have delivered the strongest returns over three months. Transportation and real estate reversed course, underperforming in January.

Technology and digital information remain the largest contributors to returns over one and three months.

Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

Growth’s outperformance relative to Value widens further. Small cap lose momentum in early 2024.

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Growth has continued to outperform Value. Small cap has marginally outperformed large cap over three months but saw negative returns in January.

Growth sees a 5yr annualized return of 17.9% vs 10.7% for value.

Long term returns (USD, TR %)
Size and style index returns since December 31, 2022 (USD, TR %)
Growth/Value outperformance theme continues. Large Cap regains momentum relative to Small Cap.
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

Quality/Value factor performance continues to diverge from the Growth/Value style return profile - strong start for Momentum in 2024

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Our “Pure Factors” are designed to eliminate the unintended sector and factor exposures incorporated into most conventional factor methodologies. In this regard they are designed to deliver “pure” factor premia.

Pure Momentum outperforms in January with Size and Quality the laggards.

Pure Value has outperformed Quality over three months. Beta has underperformed.

Significantly different return profiles delivered by Pure Factors compared to their respective Style indexes.
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

-5.5%

Decline in European ex UK equities in Q3 2023 (USD, TR)  

+10.0%

Rise in global Equity Index YTD (USD, TR) 

-3.1%

Q3 2023 return of US equities (TR) 

+8.0%

GLOBAL EQUITY 10-year annualized return (USD, TR) 
GEMS Market Performance
Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Global equity market rally loses momentum in late January

More
Global Sector Performance
Data as of :
January 31, 2024

US tech and digital info theme continues into the new year

More
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

Global equity market rally loses momentum in late January

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

The global equity rally lost some momentum in January. Japan (in USD terms) has outperformed, China sees further significant declines.

Wide dispersion of returns within Emerging markets with India and Taiwan pulling ahead whilst China significantly underperforms.

In USD terms the US has delivered the strongest returns over 10 years. Europe ex UK has outperformed the UK. China has fallen back dramatically from its high in January 2021.

Regional Returns - Short Term (USD, TR, %)
Regional Returns - Long Term (USD, TR, %)
Double-digit returns over 3 months for most markets. China sees further large declines in January.
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

US tech and digital info theme continues into the new year

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Larger positive US digital info and tech contributions more than offset the larger relative drag from transportation in January.

Consumer goods continues to act as a drag on China returns.

US (light blue bars) digital info, health care and tech outperformed in January. US transportation significantly underperformed Global ex US peers (dark blue bars).

US Digital info, health care and technology the top performers in January
Digital information contributed 0.9% of the 1.2% US return in January
Source: Wilshire Indexes. Data as of September 29, 2023.

10-year yields have risen since the start of the year but US yields still well below the 5% highs hit in October 2023

Data as of :
January 31, 2024
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet. Data as of September 29, 2023.

Commodity, digital asset, REITS and absolute return asset categories

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

A further escalation of the conflict in the middle east has fueled supply concerns, driving the oil price higher since the start of the year. Despite the conflict the price of oil is still well below its 2023 high reached on 27 September. After a strong Q4 (+11.2%) gold has eased back, driven in part by the modest rise in real yields since the start of the year.

Both US and non-US REITs were hit by the pick up in bond yields in January with the Wilshire Global ex US index underperforming the US. REITs have still seen strong three month returns. Wilshire Liquid Alternative indexes posted gains in January against a backdrop of increased volatility in equity markets.

Data as of :
January 31, 2024

Latest Report

August 1, 2025

Tech stocks continue to fuel FT Wilshire 5000 returns amid unprecedented levels of market concentration in the US

Download
July 1, 2025

Growth (tech) stocks power FT Wilshire 5000 back to new all-time highs but dollar weakness distorts the scale of US relative returns

Download
June 2, 2025

Tariff reprieve drives US equity market recovery but bond markets increasingly uneasy over the sustainability of US fiscal position

Download
May 1, 2025

Tariff turmoil and US stagflation risks see Trump presiding over the weakest first 100 days for US equities since 1974

Download
April 1, 2025

Tariff uncertainty generates volatility, but US correction almost entirely driven by Mag 7 decline

Download
March 3, 2025

US market seeks direction amid growth concerns and Trump policy uncertainty

Download
February 3, 2025

DeepSeek news contributes to Mag 7 underperformance in January

Download
January 2, 2025

2024: A year of US equity outperformance with risk appetite rotating from AI-stock dominance to Trump trade winners and losers

Download
December 2, 2024

US equities outperform and Small Caps surge in November as markets gear up for Trump 2.0

Download
November 1, 2024

Month-end tech sell-off sees FT Wilshire 5000 retreat from all-time highs ahead of US presidential election

Download
October 1, 2024

FT Wilshire 5000 hits all-time high with financials and industrials the dominant drivers in Q3

Download
September 3, 2024

US rebounds after early August sell-off amid signs of shift in market leadership

Download
August 1, 2024

Technology sell-off drives strong US market rotation from growth into value midway though July

Download
July 1, 2024

FT Wilshire 5000 delivers best H1 return in a US election year since 1976

Download
June 3, 2024

Tech stocks drive rebound in US market but rising bond yields generate valuation headwinds

Download
May 1, 2024

Reappraisal of US rate outlook injects volatility into markets. China closes in on a technical bull market.

Download
April 2, 2024

10% Rally in Q1 saw highest market concentration for over 40 years dominated by contribution from Nvidia

Download
March 1, 2024

AI-stock exuberance drives FT Wilshire 5000 to new highs

Download
February 1, 2024

Markets lose momentum as Fed dampens optimism over March rate cut. China continues to see sizeable declines.

Download
January 2, 2024

FT Wilshire 5000 delivers 6th best annual return since 2000

Download
December 4, 2023

Risk appetite returns as peak rate optimism drives market rebound

Download
November 1, 2023

Risk aversion comes to the fore as rising bond yields and geopolitical concerns drive declines across global equity markets.

Download
October 2, 2023

Surging US bond yields thwart the equity market rally in Q3, oil price spikes to 10 month high on tightening supply.

Download
September 6, 2023

August sees heightened volatility on rising bond yields and Chinese growth concerns but YTD equity returns remain strong

Download
August 2, 2023

Further signs of falling inflation help broaden and maintain market rally as ‘unloved’ sectors outperform in July

Download
July 5, 2023

Strong finish to the second quarter as market rally broadens out

Download
May 5, 2023

UK equities the standout performer in April. US sees modest rotation from growth into value last month.

Download
June 5, 2023

Technology stocks continue to dominate US equity returns; AI and Semiconductors the clear winners

Download
April 4, 2023

Markets rebound in late March as bank contagion fears ease

Download

Monthly Analysis of global multi-asset absolute and relative FX- adjusted returns. Risk/Return analysis, correlation and Pure Factors.

Global Multi-Asset Returns

Global Multi-Asset Analysis of absolute and relative FX-adjusted returns.

FT Wilshire 5000

US Performance, sector contribution, technical analysis, dispersion.

Pure Factors

Return analysis, comparing Factor vs Style,

Global Equity

Regional multi-currency performance, sector comparison, technical analysis.

Additional asset classes

Fixed income, alternatives, foreign exchange.

Risk/Return analysis

Regional and multi-asset, multiple time periods.
By clicking “Accept All Cookies”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. View our Privacy Policy for more information.

Latest Report

July 22, 2025

The US market is reaching peak levels once again, but so is its concentration

Download
June 24, 2025

US equity market resilience despite a backdrop of growing macro and geopolitical uncertainties

Download
April 23, 2025

Markets pricing in additional US risk premium on heightened concerns over US stagflation

Download
March 20, 2025

Markets pricing in growing US stagflation risks vs Eurozone reflation

Download
February 19, 2025

A paradox-widening gap in US/European macro data but significant underperformance of US equities vs Europe so far in 2025

Download
January 22, 2025

Will tightening US financial conditions disrupt the Trump trade?

Download
November 22, 2024

2025 Outlook: Assessing the known unknowns and economic KPIs of Trump 2.0

Download
September 24, 2024

Start of Fed easing cycle and soft landing outlook sends US market to new all-time highs

Download
August 20, 2024

US recession fears subside and markets look to Jackson Hole for reassurance on rate cuts

Download
July 22, 2024

Prolonged period of above neutral interest rates is now impacting US economic momentum

Download
June 24, 2024

The conundrum for the Fed: What nominal GDP regime and what neutral interest rate regime is the US economy facing?

Download
May 22, 2024

Risk appetite recovers on easing financial conditions

Download
April 24, 2024

Rapid reversal in US interest rate outlook generates heightened market volatility

Download
March 21, 2024

Risk appetite encouraged by Fed lending conviction to the expectation that easing will commence in June

Download
February 21, 2024

Markets weigh up AI trade vs waning rate cut optimism

Download
January 24, 2024

Will US EPS growth take the baton as a key market driver?

Download
November 15, 2023

The 2024 market outlook ‘Magnificent 7’ wish list

Download
October 19, 2023

Despite near term US economic momentum the key question is what outlook are markets pricing in for 2024?

Download
September 22, 2023

Reassessment of the US interest rate trajectory for 2024 implies maintenance of restrictive US financial conditions for the foreseeable future

Download
August 16, 2023

Have markets become too complacent about a soft landing outcome?

Download
July 20, 2023

Cooling inflation has buoyed risk appetite despite concerns that tight financial conditions could produce a double–dip

Download
June 16, 2023

Equity risk appetite buoyed by debt ceiling resolution, disinflation trajectory and imminence of peak rates

Download
May 18, 2023

First uptick in US EPS estimates in twelve months, but questions remain over the 2024 growth rate forecast

Download
April 17, 2023

Markets rebound post-SVB as cooling inflation and weaker economic data keep market rate expectations anchored

Download

Analysis of trends in global growth, inflation, financial conditions, profits, valuation and sentiment cycles using our proprietary indicators

Market Driver Barometer

Movement and in-depth analysis of US Market Drivers.

Driver Pulse Sheets

Comprehensive data and analytics relating to the drivers across the regions.

In-depth coverage

Multi-asset returns, long perspectives, performance, and risk vs return analysis.
By clicking “Accept All Cookies”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. View our Privacy Policy for more information.