Insights

July 3, 2024

The Nifty 10 raise concerns over peak US market concentration?

A key feature of US equity market performance over the last couple of years has been the increasing dependence on the returns delivered by a handful of stocks, raising concerns about the degree of concentration.
June 27, 2024

Weighing up the ‘Yin and Yang’ forces impacting US equities

Macro economic backdrop has been supportive of risk appetite
June 6, 2024

Examining Global Infrastructure returns and sector rotation – EM take the lead

The FT Wilshire GLIO (Global Listed Infrastructure Organisation) Listed Infrastructure Indexes provide exposure to global companies which own and/or are operators of infrastructure assets
May 28, 2024

2024 EPS growth forecasts: So far so good, but optimism is starting to erode

2023 was a disappointing year in terms of EPS growth.US equities only delivered +2.3% growth while the World ex US saw a decline of -4.2%.
March 25, 2024

Will good news equal bad news?

On the back of surprisingly robust growth in 2023, both consensus forecasts and the Federal Reserve have been upgrading expectations for 2024.
March 4, 2024

Looking at the drivers behind the surge in Japanese equities

Japanese Equities have continued to power ahead delivering a 13% return YTD through to the end of February
February 23, 2024

Is the AI trade creating a TMT valuation bubble redux?

The continued surge in Nvidia and other AI related stocks is posing a question about US equity valuation status
February 5, 2024

Divergence appearing in the contribution from US tech stocks to market performance

The rally in US equities over the last 3 months (+16.4%) was partly a function of growing confidence in peak rates and anticipation of an easing cycle
January 25, 2024

In search/need of a new driver of risk appetite in 2024

The FT Wilshire 5000 26.1% return in 2023 was driven by 2 large up-legs
January 4, 2024

2023 – A stellar year for US equities delivering the 6th best annual return this century

The FT Wilshire 5000 delivered a 26.1% return in 2023
November 16, 2023

The 2024 market outlook ’Magnificent 7’ wish list

In our latest Market Driver report we identified the ‘Magnificent 7’ risk appetite wish list 2024
October 25, 2023

Not all valuation shifts are the same - assessing the quality of recent PE declines

All equity regions have experienced a large de-rating from their 2021 highs
October 4, 2023

September saw risk appetite impacted by ‘higher for longer’ US Financial Conditions

September was the largest monthly decline this year and it produced a negative return of -3.3% for Q3
September 25, 2023

EPS estimates are inflecting higher despite a deteriorating stock buyback backdrop

The good news - 2023 & 2024 US EPS estimates have started to inflect higher...
September 6, 2023

Has the style/factor rotation in 2023 been as significant as received wisdom believes?

Through the prism of style indices, 2023 has seen a strong rotation towards Growth v Value
August 24, 2023

Tightening Financial Conditions endanger the soft-landing optimism

A significant driver behind the recovery in risk appetite over the last few months has been growing conviction over the delivery of a soft-landing for the US economy
August 4, 2023

The Equal Weighted FT Wilshire 5000 has been the stealth winner since May

Watch what markets do not what they say
July 20, 2023

What correlation regime will asset classes move to?

Since 1978 we have identified six periods when inflation has more than doubled and moved significantly higher
July 5, 2023

Key Q2 2023 performance observations

A strong finish to Q2 delivers a 16.3% return YTD
June 29, 2023

Are US equity relative valuations encountering vertigo?

Viewed through the prism of absolute PE’s the US (like most markets) has witnessed a rollercoaster in PE valuations since hitting a peak in April 2021
June 5, 2023

The surge in technology stocks is creating extreme market concentration effects

The strong headline FT Wilshire returns do not reflect market undercurrents
May 29, 2023

The US EPS growth outlook – is the glass half full or empty?

As we approach the middle of the year increasing attention is given to the EPS outlook beyond year end 2023
May 15, 2023

Key inflection points in market behavior in 2023

2023 has witnessed some key inflection points and reversals in market behavior compared with the 2022
April 21, 2023

Deteriorating US economic momentum, however US financial conditions continue to ease

An important second order effect resulting from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ...
April 11, 2023

A rollercoaster Q1 with the Tech rally trumping Bank angst

The +7.3% return in Q1 was delivered in three distinct phases
March 20, 2023

Bank contagion fears lead to a collapse in year-end US interest rate expectations

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and fears of contagion have hit global bank stocks, rippling through to wider risk off market sentiment
March 20, 2023

Turning the spotlight on US buybacks - is a structural reversal in play?

Share buybacks in the US have been a key feature of market dynamics during the post-GFC period...
March 3, 2023

The Risk Off move in February had a different dynamic compared to those of 2022

While the FT Wilshire 5000 adopted a risk off tone in February…
February 20, 2023

Has market exuberance over the 'Goldilocks' narrative been premature?

The improvement in risk appetite in recent months has been underpinned by a 'Goldilocks' scenario of easing financial conditions
February 6, 2023

Two distinct phases to the recovery in markets since mid-October

The FT Wilshire 5000 has appreciated 14.5% from the mid-October low
January 25, 2023

Confidence buoyed by conviction that inflation has peaked - despite Fed skepticism

Markets are convinced that inflation has already peaked and that interest rates should follow suit by Q2 this year.
January 6, 2023

2022 performance review: Six key observations from an ‘annus horribilis’

The FT Wilshire 5000 delivered the 4th largest annual drawdown since 1970
November 22, 2022

Unpacking the drivers behind the deteriorating US EPS growth trajectory

The second half of 2023 has seen the 2023 EPS growth rate forecast start to decline
November 22, 2022

Moving to the phase where bad news becomes good news

The likelihood of the delivery of sustained disinflation in 2023
November 4, 2022

Differentiating bear market rallies vs meaningful inflection points

Bear markets are not linear – they typically witness numerous rallies
November 3, 2022

October saw US equities rally on speculation the Fed might change tack

The FT Wilshire 5000 rallies 8.2% in October
October 22, 2022

Perspectives on the bear market – how long will sentiment languish at historic lows?

The FT Wilshire 5000 has experienced a technical bear market in 2022 (defined as at least a -20% drawdown)
October 22, 2022

The scale of the de-rating has pushed PEs back to Covid lows

Scale of the drawdown in global equities in 2022 has produced a significant de-rating with US equites experiencing one of the largest PE contractions
October 5, 2022

The surge in the dollar is creating market distortions

A key feature of 2022 has been the sustained strength of the US dollar
October 5, 2022

Q3 witnessed a dramatic "U-turn" in risk appetite

The rapid reversal in risk appetite in Q3 has produced a retest of the June lows
September 27, 2022

US EPS cycle starting to wobble

After a period of relative stability, we are starting to see a deterioration in the EPS or profit cycle through the prism of estimate trail analysis
September 27, 2022

Risk aversion being driven by tightening financial conditions

Markets have been gripped by risk aversion since mid-August
September 27, 2022

August was a month of two halves for FT Wilshire 5000 return delivery

Hawkish Fed guidance sends FT Wilshire 5000 into reverse gear in August
September 6, 2022

The FT Wilshire 5000 continues to deliver strong long term real returns

Equities are a long duration asset class and returns should be viewed via the prism of long-time horizons
August 19, 2022

US valuations rebound from mid-June lows led by consumer durables, technology and retail sectors

US consumer durables, technology and retail have led the re-rating of the US market since mid-June
August 19, 2022

US leads market recovery from the lows in mid-June after sentiment hit extreme lows

Following a record-breaking decline in the first half of 2022, markets have staged a recovery led by the US.
August 18, 2022

FT Wilshire 5000 delivers strongest monthly rally since November 2020

The 9.6% return in July was driven by a rotation to growth stocks
August 18, 2022

US equity market experiences one of its largest PE de-ratings in 30 years

The scale of decline in valuations was one of the largest de-ratings witnessed in 30 years
August 18, 2022

US EPS forecasts – glass half full or empty?

Consensus EPS growth forecasts have been resilient - is this reassuring or highlighting the risk that an EPS downgrading cycle is yet to commmence?
August 18, 2022

When does a bear become a bull?

Movements in US 30s/10s curve generally lead 10s/2s despite focus on 10s/2s
August 18, 2022

The risk that a hawkish Fed produces a policy mistake

Stung by the persistency and level of inflation and the accusation of being behind the curve the Federal reserve has cranked up its hawkishness
August 18, 2022

FT Wilshire 5000 mid-year review: Factor and Style index return rotation

2022 has witnessed a large rotation in both factor and style indices
August 18, 2022

FT Wilshire 5000 mid-year review: Perspectives on the correction

The first half of 2022 witnessed a significant correction to the FT Wilshire 5000 index taking the index back to levels last seen in early 2021